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  • Feb 18th, 2005
  • Comments Off on Dollar falters after Greenspan fails to inspire
The dollar faltered on Thursday, failing to capitalise on Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan's indication the previous day that US interest rates would continue to rise. Much of what Greenspan said in his closely watched testimony to the Senate Banking Committee was common knowledge in the market, giving little impetus to dollar bulls who had hoped for a stronger language.

"Greenspan didn't offer anything new in his testimony, so it isn't having a big impact on the market," said Hideaki Furumaya, forex manager at Trust and Custody Services Bank, adding that few in the market thought the Fed chairman's testimony to the House of Representatives later in the day would yield surprises either.

"The market already knows that US interest rates are going to keep rising, so the focus could be turning to interest rate differentials in the near term, which should support the dollar."

The dollar was around 105.25 yen a tad below late US levels around 105.40 yen. The euro fetched $1.3045 compared to $1.3030.

The dollar has eased about 2.5 percent against the euro since last week, when it hit a three-month high around $1.2730.

An initial climb took the dollar to around 105.75 yen and $1.2960 versus the euro right after Greenspan said US interest rates remained "fairly low" at 2.5 percent after six consecutive rate rises by the Federal Reserve since June.

Greenspan's comments were taken as a sign that he is eager to raise rates further. Higher US interest rates are likely to attract global funds to the dollar and are seen as positive for the dollar.

"Looking from the mid- and long-term perspectives, the dollar has bottomed out and is about to start a rebound phase. Greenspan's remarks are reinforcing such a trend," said Kikuko Takeda, a market economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi.

But some market participants said Greenspan did not appear overly confident about the outlook for the US deficits, which have hung over the dollar in recent months.

Analysts said the deficits issue would continue to compete with interest rate differentials to steer the dollar.

"Greenspan's comments are balanced, or it might be better to say they are open to interpretation, so any one can draw whatever conclusions they want," said Toshihiro Azuma, forex manager at Sumitomo Trust and Banking.

Copyright Reuters, 2005


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